Model Predictions
| Model | Troy Trojans | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 78.6% | 21.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 70.4% | 29.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 69.1% | 30.9% | -4.4 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 76.5% | 23.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 76.6% | 23.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats -5 (69-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Troy Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Dowd | 33 | 3-12 | 1-8 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | +2.7 |
| Tayton Conerway | 32 | 8-19 | 1-6 | 7-8 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 15 | -1.5 |
| Myles Rigsby | 23 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 11-13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 17 | +3.2 |
| Randarius Jones | 22 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | +5.2 |
| Victor Valdes | 21 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | -7.6 |
| Coo. Campbell | 19 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4.4 |
| Marcus Rigsby Jr. | 18 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Jackson Fields | 14 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | -6.7 |
| Theo Seng | 10 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4.7 |
| Kerrington Kiel | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.0 |
| Jerrell Bellamy | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrel Morgan | 33 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 15 | +2.6 |
| Tylan Pope | 30 | 8-12 | 1-1 | 8-8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 20 | +4.6 |
| Mark Drone | 29 | 2-12 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Joshua O'Garro | 26 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | +8.5 |
| Coleton Benson | 24 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | +6.4 |
| Christian Turner | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Drue Drinnon | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -5.1 |
| Kaden Gumbs | 9 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +3.1 |
| Austin Green | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Dylan Dawson | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Nate Deer | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | +1.0 |
| Bessanty Saragba | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter