Model Predictions
| Model | South Alabama Jaguars | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.7% | 32.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 60.2% | 39.8% | -2.3 | ✗ (3.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 71.4% | 28.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 71.6% | 28.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.4% | 45.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats +1 (93-92). Predictions use season-end ratings.
South Alabama Jaguars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Dunning Jr. | 42 | 13-20 | 9-12 | 11-11 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 46 | 32 | -1.1 |
| Myles Corey | 37 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 5-6 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | -0.1 |
| John Broom | 34 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | -4.1 |
| Elijah Ormiston | 30 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +3.6 |
| Jayden Cooper | 29 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6.1 |
| Cantia Rahming | 15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -5.1 |
| Dylan Fasoyiro | 14 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +5.5 |
| Judah Brown | 14 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2.8 |
| JJ Wheat | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3.8 |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrel Morgan | 36 | 8-11 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 14 | +2.9 |
| Tylan Pope | 30 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | +2.6 |
| Joshua O'Garro | 29 | 4-9 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 17 | +6.5 |
| Mark Drone | 26 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3.4 |
| Coleton Benson | 22 | 5-9 | 5-8 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 13 | +4.4 |
| Christian Turner | 18 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Kaden Gumbs | 17 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | +3.5 |
| Drue Drinnon | 14 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -3.2 |
| Bessanty Saragba | 12 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +1.6 |
| Dylan Dawson | 11 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -5.2 |
| Austin Green | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1.6 |
| Nate Deer | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +0.1 |
* = starter