Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | South Alabama Jaguars | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.7% | 72.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.5% | 80.5% | +7.8 | ✓ (2.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 22.6% | 77.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 22.4% | 77.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.7% | 67.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: South Alabama Jaguars +5 (70-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrel Morgan | 40 | 3-10 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -1.7 |
| Tylan Pope | 37 | 7-20 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 16 | +4.1 |
| Dylan Dawson | 34 | 3-9 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 3 | -0.7 |
| Joshua O'Garro | 33 | 4-13 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +0.1 |
| Mark Drone | 29 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 2-4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -3 | +5.3 |
| Drue Drinnon | 25 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5.3 |
| Christian Turner | 17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Nate Deer | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1.8 |
| Austin Green | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.1 |
South Alabama Jaguars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Dunning Jr. | 42 | 11-23 | 5-9 | 7-8 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 23 | +3.0 |
| Myles Corey | 37 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | +0.6 |
| John Broom | 36 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +5.5 |
| Dylan Fasoyiro | 33 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +9.3 |
| Elijah Ormiston | 32 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 9-10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 14 | +2.1 |
| JJ Wheat | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -9.3 |
| Judah Brown | 12 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -8.6 |
| Cantia Rahming | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2.7 |
| Randy Brady | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Jayden Cooper | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +0.3 |
* = starter