Model Predictions
| Model | Troy Trojans | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 28.8% | 71.2% | +5.0 | ✗ (6.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves -1 (70-71). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Troy Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Rigsby | 36 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 | +0.0 |
| Tayton Conerway | 35 | 5-13 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 10 | +0.1 |
| Marcus Rigsby Jr. | 26 | 0-8 | 0-4 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +3.6 |
| Thomas Dowd | 24 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 5-8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +4.8 |
| Jackson Fields | 23 | 6-9 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 22 | +13.5 |
| Victor Valdes | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +10.4 |
| Theo Seng | 13 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -3.3 |
| Jerrell Bellamy | 12 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | -5.5 |
| Coo. Campbell | 11 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | -5.4 |
| Randarius Jones | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.9 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Ford Jr. | 40 | 6-14 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 14 | -2.1 |
| Taryn Todd | 34 | 6-17 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | +4.0 |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 31 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 22 | +8.1 |
| Kobe Julien | 28 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -4.3 |
| Joseph Pinion | 25 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | -8.8 |
| Derrian Ford | 18 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2.7 |
| Dyondre Dominguez | 10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | +4.9 |
| Rashaud Marshall | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -10.2 |
| Avery Felts | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2.0 |
* = starter