Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 73.8% | 26.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 68.8% | 31.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 77.0% | 23.0% | -6.7 | ✓ (4.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.6% | 42.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.2% | 17.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.2% | 17.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 63.5% | 36.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats -11 (74-85). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Ford Jr. | 38 | 6-12 | 2-4 | 6-7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 12 | -9.7 |
| Kobe Julien | 36 | 6-13 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 17 | -4.2 |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 35 | 10-10 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 25 | -7.9 |
| Joseph Pinion | 33 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | -9.8 |
| Derrian Ford | 29 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | -8.4 |
| Taryn Todd | 15 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | -6.8 |
| Rashaud Marshall | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -1.2 |
| Dyondre Dominguez | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Zane Butler | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Dawson | 36 | 5-11 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +9.9 |
| Joshua O'Garro | 34 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | +9.8 |
| Kaden Gumbs | 34 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13 | +9.8 |
| Tylan Pope | 25 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +10.7 |
| Christian Turner | 21 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Coleton Benson | 18 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +6.7 |
| Drue Drinnon | 14 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +0.9 |
| Austin Green | 13 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +2.2 |
| Bessanty Saragba | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.3 |
* = starter