Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.1% | 84.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 9.8% | 90.2% | +12.2 | ✓ (2.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 36.4% | 63.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 36.7% | 63.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 11.8% | 88.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 11.8% | 88.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.0% | 75.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +15 (80-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua O'Garro | 36 | 9-10 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 28 | -6.8 |
| Christian Turner | 31 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Tylan Pope | 29 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 10 | -8.5 |
| Kaden Gumbs | 29 | 2-12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -9.8 |
| Dylan Dawson | 28 | 0-6 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -5 | -13.6 |
| Coleton Benson | 27 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 7-7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 2 | -11.8 |
| Austin Green | 13 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -12.7 |
| Bessanty Saragba | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3.9 |
| Nate Deer | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.9 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Ford Jr. | 38 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | +13.7 |
| Joseph Pinion | 35 | 6-12 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 10 | +13.7 |
| Taryn Todd | 30 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +14.3 |
| Derrian Ford | 28 | 5-11 | 4-7 | 5-6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 10 | +11.8 |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 23 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | +5.9 |
| Kobe Julien | 21 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | +2.0 |
| Rashaud Marshall | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 16 | +7.8 |
| Avery Felts | 8 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -0.0 |
* = starter