Model Predictions
| Model | App State Mountaineers | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.3% | 82.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.6% | 88.4% | +11.2 | ✓ (1.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.2% | 83.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +10 (65-55). Predictions use season-end ratings.
App State Mountaineers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Tate | 39 | 6-18 | 0-8 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 6 | -10.5 |
| CJ Huntley | 39 | 9-17 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 14 | -9.9 |
| Dior Conners | 34 | 0-7 | 0-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | -7.3 |
| Jalil Beaubrun | 27 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 15 | -20.1 |
| Jackson Threadgill | 26 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1.1 |
| Alonzo Dodd | 19 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -11.9 |
| Luke Wilson | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +9.0 |
| Michael Marcus Jr. | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Jamil Muttilib | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Ford Jr. | 38 | 2-11 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 | +9.3 |
| Joseph Pinion | 37 | 5-10 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 11 | +11.3 |
| Taryn Todd | 36 | 4-16 | 0-5 | 4-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +14.9 |
| Kobe Julien | 31 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 5-8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 12 | +17.7 |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 24 | 5-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | +15.3 |
| Rashaud Marshall | 20 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -0.9 |
| Dyondre Dominguez | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | -8.9 |
| Derrian Ford | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Avery Felts | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 |
* = starter