Model Predictions
| Model | Southern Miss Golden Eagles | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.1% | 71.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.8% | 70.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 16.5% | 83.5% | +8.9 | ✓ (5.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 31.1% | 68.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 31.1% | 68.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.1% | 80.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats +3 (85-82). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denijay Harris | 43 | 8-15 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 18 | +1.1 |
| Christian Watson | 35 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Neftali Alvarez | 35 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 6-7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +1.6 |
| Cobie Montgomery | 27 | 6-11 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 8 | - |
| John Wade III | 23 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | +0.3 |
| Andre Curbelo | 20 | 3-13 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | +0.3 |
| DeAntoni Gordon | 16 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | +0.2 |
| Christian Reid | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Alfred Worrell Jr. | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1.2 |
| Brewer Carruth | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1.2 |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Dawson | 44 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 4 | -1.4 |
| Joshua O'Garro | 44 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | -1.5 |
| Coleton Benson | 38 | 7-17 | 5-10 | 4-5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 12 | -1.5 |
| Tylan Pope | 38 | 8-20 | 1-2 | 11-14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 26 | -1.1 |
| Christian Turner | 33 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | - |
| Austin Green | 25 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -1.5 |
| Nate Deer | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter