Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Troy Trojans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.5% | 52.5% | +0.5 | ✗ (6.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Troy Trojans -6 (78-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Ford Jr. | 36 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 19 | +4.5 |
| Taryn Todd | 36 | 8-15 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7.6 |
| Kobe Julien | 27 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 6-9 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 | +12.3 |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 21 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | +12.1 |
| Joseph Pinion | 21 | 5-10 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 10 | -11.1 |
| Rashaud Marshall | 19 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Dyondre Dominguez | 14 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 8-9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +4.8 |
| Derrian Ford | 13 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Avery Felts | 13 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.2 |
Troy Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tayton Conerway | 34 | 8-12 | 4-7 | 12-15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 32 | -5.1 |
| Victor Valdes | 33 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Coo. Campbell | 28 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +11.5 |
| Theo Seng | 22 | 6-7 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 17 | -4.7 |
| Thomas Dowd | 21 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | -4.2 |
| Jackson Fields | 18 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Jerrell Bellamy | 11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -10.3 |
| Marcus Rigsby Jr. | 10 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1.2 |
| Randarius Jones | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +4.6 |
| Kerrington Kiel | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -6.8 |
| Myles Rigsby | 7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2.5 |
* = starter