Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | South Alabama Jaguars | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 57.3% | 42.7% | -1.6 | ✗ (15.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.3% | 36.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: South Alabama Jaguars +14 (76-62). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taryn Todd | 38 | 6-18 | 5-15 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | -11.9 |
| Terrance Ford Jr. | 35 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | -14.6 |
| Joseph Pinion | 32 | 5-18 | 2-14 | 5-5 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 10 | -9.5 |
| Avery Felts | 25 | 2-9 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -13.8 |
| Dyondre Dominguez | 24 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -7.2 |
| Derrian Ford | 19 | 1-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | -5.4 |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -0.9 |
| Rashaud Marshall | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -7.9 |
| Zane Butler | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.0 |
South Alabama Jaguars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Dunning Jr. | 35 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | +14.6 |
| John Broom | 34 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 20 | +18.5 |
| Myles Corey | 30 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +10.3 |
| Elijah Ormiston | 26 | 6-8 | 4-5 | 6-7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 18 | +15.9 |
| JJ Wheat | 25 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | +11.7 |
| Dylan Fasoyiro | 16 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +8.8 |
| Cantia Rahming | 14 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -0.6 |
| Judah Brown | 11 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | -2.8 |
| Jayden Cooper | 9 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | -1.6 |
| Caleb Kizer | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter