Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | App State Mountaineers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.5% | 66.5% | +3.8 | ✓ (7.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.3% | 60.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: App State Mountaineers +11 (72-61). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrel Morgan | 36 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | -9.2 |
| Joshua O'Garro | 32 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | +1.0 |
| Kaden Gumbs | 32 | 0-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -11.0 |
| Drue Drinnon | 28 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | -2.8 |
| Dylan Dawson | 21 | 5-11 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 7 | -8.8 |
| Tylan Pope | 19 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 4 | -2.4 |
| Coleton Benson | 14 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | -7.9 |
| Bessanty Saragba | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -4.9 |
| Nate Deer | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.9 |
| Austin Green | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.0 |
App State Mountaineers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Tate | 36 | 9-19 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | +13.6 |
| CJ Huntley | 35 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 16 | +12.6 |
| Alonzo Dodd | 33 | 6-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 15 | -0.0 |
| Dior Conners | 28 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +6.9 |
| Jackson Threadgill | 26 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | +2.4 |
| Jalil Beaubrun | 19 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +15.0 |
| Jamil Muttilib | 11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +5.2 |
| Michael Marcus Jr. | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +3.0 |
| Luke Wilson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1.0 |
* = starter