Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | James Madison Dukes | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 69.6% | 30.4% | -4.6 | ✗ (9.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.1% | 43.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 77.7% | 22.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 77.8% | 22.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: James Madison Dukes +5 (67-62). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taryn Todd | 38 | 11-21 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 6 | -0.7 |
| Joseph Pinion | 36 | 6-10 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | -1.3 |
| Terrance Ford Jr. | 32 | 0-7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | -2.5 |
| Derrian Ford | 31 | 2-9 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +2.4 |
| Rashaud Marshall | 26 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | -5.0 |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 18 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 10 | -1.3 |
| Dyondre Dominguez | 18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1.4 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.9 |
| Avery Felts | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +0.0 |
James Madison Dukes
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Brown | 37 | 7-12 | 1-3 | 3-7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 12 | +6.1 |
| Bryce Lindsay | 29 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | +7.4 |
| Eddie Ricks III | 27 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | -3.3 |
| AJ Smith | 24 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | +11.6 |
| Elijah Hutchins-Everett | 24 | 7-12 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 10 | -7.3 |
| Mark Freeman | 24 | 2-12 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -6 | -3.3 |
| Ebenezer Dowuona | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +2.1 |
| Noah Williams | 12 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +10.7 |
| Will Lovings-Watts | 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +0.9 |
| Luke Anderson | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -4.2 |
* = starter