Model Predictions
| Model | Troy Trojans | App State Mountaineers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 77.7% | 22.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.3% | 36.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 65.1% | 34.9% | -3.4 | ✓ (4.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.9% | 29.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 71.1% | 28.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: App State Mountaineers -8 (61-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Troy Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Conerway | 29 | 4-4 | 4-4 | 4-6 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 24 | +8.0 |
| T. Dowd | 26 | 4-9 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +6.6 |
| M. Rigsby | 26 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +4.1 |
| M. Rigsby Jr. | 23 | 5-12 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | -1.0 |
| J. Fields | 19 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1.1 |
| V. Valdes | 17 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | +0.4 |
| J. Bellamy | 16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | +7.1 |
| Coo. Campbell | 16 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +10.2 |
| T. Seng | 14 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +5.0 |
| K. Kiel | 9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | +2.9 |
| R. Jones | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
App State Mountaineers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Huntley | 36 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | -2.2 |
| A. Dodd | 34 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -8.0 |
| M. Tate | 34 | 7-19 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 13 | -6.9 |
| J. Beaubrun | 30 | 5-7 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 | -2.6 |
| D. Conners | 30 | 3-11 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | -8.2 |
| J. Threadgill | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3.8 |
| M. Marcus Jr. | 12 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3.0 |
| J. Muttilib | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1.8 |
| A. Alston | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.8 |
| L. Wilson | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.2 |
* = starter