Model Predictions
| Model | UC Riverside Highlanders | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.7% | 59.3% | +2.1 | ✓ (9.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +12 (112-100). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Riverside Highlanders
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrington Hargress | 41 | 9-26 | 2-7 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 7 | -6.0 |
| Isaiah Moses | 39 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 15 | -6.7 |
| Kaleb Smith | 32 | 5-12 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 4 | -9.5 |
| Nate Pickens | 28 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 11-12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 23 | -7.8 |
| Niyi Olabode | 27 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -11.4 |
| Joel Armotrading | 22 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5.0 |
| Rikus Schulte | 15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | +5.0 |
| Luke Turner | 12 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1.6 |
| Jack Whitbourn | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -5.7 |
| Gavin Davis | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0.2 |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Jessup | 42 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 8 | +11.3 |
| Peter Bandelj | 40 | 8-17 | 3-9 | 5-9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 19 | +7.9 |
| Jarred Hyder | 37 | 10-18 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 14 | +9.5 |
| Cayden Ward | 32 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | +12.4 |
| Owen Koonce | 30 | 3-7 | 0-4 | 6-6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +9.5 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 21 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +6.3 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 12 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Mac Riniker | 11 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -4.5 |
* = starter