Model Predictions
| Model | Cal State Northridge Matadors | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.7% | 30.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.8% | 37.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 73.7% | 26.3% | -5.7 | ✓ (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 66.2% | 33.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 79.6% | 20.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 79.8% | 20.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 61.7% | 38.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies -3 (62-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotty Washington | 39 | 7-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 5 | +5.7 |
| Marcus Adams Jr. | 37 | 6-11 | 3-7 | 4-5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 13 | +6.5 |
| Mahmoud Fofana | 37 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 25 | +5.6 |
| Tyler Beard | 30 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -5 | +15.8 |
| Keonte Jones | 29 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | +3.4 |
| Jordan Brinson | 17 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -10.8 |
| Judson Martindale | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -2.8 |
| Grady Lewis | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5.8 |
| Jalen Barbee | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Johnson | 37 | 11-25 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 6 | -3.4 |
| Connor Sevilla | 36 | 4-7 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 13 | -3.5 |
| Niko Rocak | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | +4.4 |
| Leo DeBruhl | 30 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | -7.8 |
| Pablo Tamba | 25 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | -3.5 |
| Carl Daughtery Jr. | 17 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | +1.9 |
| Nils Cooper | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -4.4 |
| Jamaal Unuakhalu | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Sione Lose | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 |
* = starter