Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Cal State Northridge Matadors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.4% | 83.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.8% | 70.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.6% | 88.4% | +11.2 | ✓ (0.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 27.8% | 72.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 29.1% | 70.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 14.4% | 85.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 14.3% | 85.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal State Northridge Matadors +12 (73-61). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Johnson | 35 | 3-16 | 0-4 | 11-14 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 6 | -10.0 |
| Leo DeBruhl | 31 | 2-11 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | -10.8 |
| Connor Sevilla | 30 | 2-9 | 2-8 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | -4.9 |
| Niko Rocak | 27 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | -5.0 |
| Nils Cooper | 24 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | -14.5 |
| Pablo Tamba | 20 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | +2.5 |
| Sione Lose | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11.3 |
| Isaiah Chappell | 11 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -7.2 |
| Carl Daughtery Jr. | 8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3.1 |
| Jac Mani | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Adams Jr. | 36 | 11-17 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 17 | +12.1 |
| Keonte Jones | 35 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 5-11 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 30 | +14.1 |
| Scotty Washington | 35 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4.1 |
| PJ Fuller II | 33 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 | +11.8 |
| Mahmoud Fofana | 27 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 13 | +11.6 |
| Jordan Brinson | 11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5.5 |
| Grady Lewis | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +4.2 |
| Tyler Beard | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +3.0 |
| Festus Ndumanya | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Jalen Barbee | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 |
* = starter