Model Predictions
| Model | Cal State Northridge Matadors | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.0% | 39.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.9% | 43.1% | -1.5 | ✓ (9.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.1% | 33.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.1% | 33.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -11 (91-102). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahmoud Fofana | 32 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 13 | +12.0 |
| PJ Fuller II | 30 | 6-14 | 2-4 | 8-9 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 21 | +7.4 |
| Grady Lewis | 26 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 20 | +0.8 |
| Scotty Washington | 23 | 5-12 | 2-3 | 4-5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +9.0 |
| Tyler Beard | 21 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +1.3 |
| Keonte Jones | 21 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +10.2 |
| Marcus Adams Jr. | 18 | 7-11 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +10.5 |
| Jordan Brinson | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Judson Martindale | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +0.8 |
| Festus Ndumanya | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4.1 |
| Jalen Barbee | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -0.0 |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Koonce | 35 | 9-15 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 19 | -9.1 |
| Mac Riniker | 33 | 5-13 | 1-7 | 3-4 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | -5.9 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 32 | 6-11 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 14 | -12.5 |
| Peter Bandelj | 29 | 2-11 | 2-8 | 9-11 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 10 | -1.8 |
| Luka Tarlac | 24 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 2-6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -6.3 |
| Ethan Menzies | 16 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3.5 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 12 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Hayden Jory | 9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -11.5 |
| Kieran Elliott | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +2.2 |
| Paul Bizimana | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter