Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.0% | 70.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.5% | 69.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.8% | 71.2% | +5.0 | ✓ (14.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos +19 (96-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarred Hyder | 32 | 6-16 | 2-9 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 8 | -18.7 |
| Peter Bandelj | 29 | 6-15 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 3 | -4.1 |
| Owen Koonce | 29 | 10-17 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 10 | -9.9 |
| Cayden Ward | 27 | 1-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | -7.2 |
| Isaac Jessup | 26 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | +0.6 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 18 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -9.1 |
| Mac Riniker | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -19.5 |
| Luka Tarlac | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | +2.6 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Hayden Jory | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Anderson | 33 | 6-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 10 | +11.5 |
| Jason Fontenet II | 28 | 8-11 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 20 | +14.3 |
| Kenny Pohto | 23 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | -2.7 |
| Stephan Swenson | 23 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 | +6.7 |
| Deuce Turner | 23 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | +0.2 |
| Colin Smith | 22 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 | +31.3 |
| Max Murrell | 21 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +4.2 |
| Ben Shtolzberg | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +5.2 |
| Zion Sensley | 9 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -0.9 |
| David Pickles | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Ariel Bland | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Max Sheldon | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Henry Hartwell | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Elia Bongiorno | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter