Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.7% | 76.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 22.3% | 77.7% | +6.9 | ✗ (17.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 29.1% | 70.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.8% | 71.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -11 (54-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Sevilla | 36 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +8.5 |
| Ty Johnson | 35 | 7-20 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 7 | +7.4 |
| Leo DeBruhl | 30 | 1-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | +2.7 |
| Nils Cooper | 27 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | +6.2 |
| Carl Daughtery Jr. | 26 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -2.6 |
| Pablo Tamba | 25 | 8-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 19 | +8.2 |
| Niko Rocak | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -8.1 |
| Sione Lose | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +0.3 |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Riniker | 36 | 6-13 | 2-7 | 4-6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 15 | -4.2 |
| Jarred Hyder | 34 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | -6.9 |
| Owen Koonce | 33 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -7.4 |
| Isaac Jessup | 33 | 4-9 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 5 | -7.0 |
| Peter Bandelj | 28 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3.2 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 23 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | +5.0 |
| Cayden Ward | 6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +4.2 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Luka Tarlac | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.0 |
| Ethan Menzies | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter