Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC San Diego Tritons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 11.1% | 88.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 8.7% | 91.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 4.3% | 95.7% | +17.0 | ✓ (10.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 29.3% | 70.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.1% | 98.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.1% | 98.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 16.6% | 83.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC San Diego Tritons +27 (95-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarred Hyder | 34 | 4-14 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | -17.6 |
| Isaac Jessup | 32 | 1-7 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | -3.0 |
| Owen Koonce | 31 | 7-10 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 14 | -2.7 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 27 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 10 | -12.6 |
| Peter Bandelj | 21 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | -10.0 |
| Luka Tarlac | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2.4 |
| Mac Riniker | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -7.7 |
| Ethan Menzies | 9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Cayden Ward | 9 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7.9 |
| Hayden Jory | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -8.5 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Paul Bizimana | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8.5 |
| Isaac Spears | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -8.5 |
UC San Diego Tritons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler McGhie | 33 | 4-13 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +14.8 |
| Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones | 30 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 13-14 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 23 | +12.4 |
| Hayden Gray | 30 | 8-12 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 21 | +14.4 |
| Nordin Kapic | 24 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 19 | +6.8 |
| Justin Rochelin | 21 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | +8.3 |
| Aidan Burke | 21 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +20.6 |
| Chris Howell | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | +2.5 |
| Maximo Milovich | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | +2.0 |
| Cade Pendleton | 2 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +7.1 |
| Ryder Elisaldez | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7.0 |
| Jasen Brooks | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7.0 |
* = starter