Model Predictions
| Model | Mississippi State Bulldogs | Auburn Tigers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.0% | 87.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 16.7% | 83.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 7.5% | 92.5% | +13.8 | ✓ (8.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 7.5% | 92.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 7.1% | 92.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Auburn Tigers +22 (88-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Matthews | 36 | 2-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -2 | -16.4 |
| Josh Hubbard | 36 | 2-12 | 2-10 | 11-12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 10 | -16.5 |
| Claudell Harris Jr. | 30 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 2 | -32.6 |
| RJ Melendez | 28 | 5-12 | 0-4 | 5-6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 10 | -11.4 |
| KeShawn Murphy | 26 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1-6 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | -13.7 |
| Michael Nwoko | 17 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2.7 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -10.7 |
| Dellquan Warren | 10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6.6 |
| Harrison Alexander | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.9 |
Auburn Tigers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaney Johnson | 34 | 7-10 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 20 | +35.6 |
| Dylan Cardwell | 29 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 10 | +10.9 |
| Miles Kelly | 29 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 16 | +35.7 |
| Denver Jones | 28 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 6-6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 12 | +13.7 |
| Chad Baker-Mazara | 25 | 8-11 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 13 | +11.1 |
| Tahaad Pettiford | 21 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +1.9 |
| Jahki Howard | 14 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | +11.4 |
| Chris Moore | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5.2 |
| Ja'Heim Hudson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.8 |
| Reed Trapp | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Blake Muschalek | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1.9 |
| CJ Williams | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Presley Patterson | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1.9 |
* = starter