Model Predictions
| Model | Tarleton State Texans | California Baptist Lancers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.3% | 88.7% | +11.3 | ✓ (8.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 18.0% | 82.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 17.5% | 82.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 9.8% | 90.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.5% | 90.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: California Baptist Lancers +20 (68-48). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Tarleton State Texans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keitenn Bristow | 36 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 8 | -23.4 |
| Bubu Benjamin | 35 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | -17.4 |
| Jordan Mizell | 33 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -23.4 |
| D. Grimes | 31 | 5-12 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -1 | -14.5 |
| Chris Mpaka | 27 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 1-6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -7.5 |
| Karim Elgizawy | 22 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +6.3 |
| Izzy Miles | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -12.8 |
| Nick Krass | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3.9 |
California Baptist Lancers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tylen Riley | 38 | 4-15 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 8 | +16.4 |
| Javonté Johnson | 35 | 6-6 | 6-6 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 17 | +28.5 |
| Sam Silverstein | 33 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | +11.5 |
| Dominique Daniels Jr. | 30 | 4-13 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +13.4 |
| Kendal Coleman | 29 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | +17.9 |
| Martel Williams | 23 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +6.8 |
| Bradey Henige | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1.1 |
| AJ Braun | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Jalen Dollar | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Mouhamadou Dioum | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.0 |
| Brantly Stevenson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Jonathan Griman | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
* = starter