Model Predictions
| Model | Toledo Rockets | Bowling Green Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.7% | 42.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 54.5% | 45.5% | -1.0 | ✓ (12.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Bowling Green Falcons -13 (71-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson | 36 | 7-9 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 19 | +15.4 |
| Sam Lewis | 34 | 5-10 | 3-4 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 8 | +10.4 |
| Javan Simmons | 34 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 15 | +11.4 |
| Isaiah Adams | 31 | 6-14 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 7 | +14.8 |
| Bryce Ford | 30 | 4-9 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +11.4 |
| Seth Hubbard | 14 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +4.3 |
| Andre Lorentsson | 12 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +2.2 |
| Grgur Brcic | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0.1 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
Bowling Green Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Thomas | 33 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 8 | -12.8 |
| Javontae Campbell | 32 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | -15.4 |
| Jamai Felt | 31 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 22 | -16.4 |
| Derrick Butler | 31 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -11.2 |
| Marcus Johnson | 31 | 10-20 | 3-9 | 5-5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 11 | -10.3 |
| DaJion Humphrey | 24 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -0.2 |
| W. Exacte | 18 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -0.3 |
* = starter