Model Predictions
| Model | Toledo Rockets | Ball State Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.8% | 35.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.1% | 42.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.8% | 52.2% | +0.5 | ✗ (18.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Ball State Cardinals -18 (75-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson | 34 | 7-13 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +18.6 |
| Sam Lewis | 33 | 7-15 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 10 | +8.7 |
| Bryce Ford | 30 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 14 | +13.7 |
| Isaiah Adams | 28 | 9-16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | +17.0 |
| Javan Simmons | 27 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 22 | +2.7 |
| Andre Lorentsson | 20 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +8.9 |
| Seth Hubbard | 13 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +3.9 |
| Grgur Brcic | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +14.9 |
| Jaylen Murphy | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Tyler Ode | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
Ball State Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Hill | 35 | 5-13 | 0-2 | 7-11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15 | - |
| Mickey Pearson Jr. | 31 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | -8.7 |
| Payton Sparks | 29 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 18 | -6.7 |
| Ethan Brittain-Watts | 27 | 5-10 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | -19.8 |
| Jeremiah Hernandez | 24 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8.8 |
| Joey Hart | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3.9 |
| Juanse Gorosito | 14 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +0.2 |
| Mason Jones | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.9 |
| Ben Hendriks | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -10.9 |
| TJ Burch | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6.9 |
| Zane Doughty | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.0 |
* = starter