Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Dream | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 50.7% | 49.3% | -0.3 | ✗ (8.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 66.6% | 33.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.0% | 39.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +8 (74-66). Ratings: 2025 season-end ratings.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Charles * | 38 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Rhyne Howard * | 37 | 11-24 | 6-15 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 13 | - |
| Jordin Canada * | 30 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Allisha Gray * | 28 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | - |
| Naz Hillmon * | 28 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Maya Caldwell | 13 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Nia Coffey | 10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Haley Jones | 9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Lorela Cubaj | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Laeticia Amihere | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Cunningham * | 32 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Celeste Taylor * | 32 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Kahleah Copper * | 31 | 8-16 | 3-7 | 9-12 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 15 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 31 | 3-12 | 1-7 | 6-6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 30 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 19 | - |
| Monique Billings | 16 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Natasha Mack | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Mikiah Herbert Harrigan | 10 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
* = starter