Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Dream | Las Vegas Aces | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.8% | 75.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 49.2% | 50.8% | +0.4 | ✓ (10.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 62.3% | 37.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Las Vegas Aces +11 (83-72). Ratings: 2025 season-end ratings.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allisha Gray * | 37 | 5-14 | 2-7 | 5-7 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 20 | - |
| Rhyne Howard * | 31 | 4-19 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | -4 | - |
| Naz Hillmon * | 31 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Jordin Canada * | 26 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Lorela Cubaj * | 26 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Haley Jones | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Nia Coffey | 12 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Maya Caldwell | 11 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Laeticia Amihere | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
Las Vegas Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson * | 37 | 9-17 | 0-1 | 8-10 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 26 | 35 | - |
| Kelsey Plum * | 36 | 6-18 | 4-12 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 5 | - |
| Tiffany Hayes * | 32 | 8-12 | 3-4 | 1-4 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 20 | - |
| Alysha Clark * | 30 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 | - |
| Chelsea Gray * | 27 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Sydney Colson | 10 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Megan Gustafson | 9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Kate Martin | 8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Kiah Stokes | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter