Model Predictions
| Model | Minnesota Lynx | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.1% | 44.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 59.1% | 40.9% | -2.0 | ✓ (11.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 72.7% | 27.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.3% | 33.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.3% | 33.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -13 (76-89). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Minnesota Lynx
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Carleton * | 32 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 17 | - |
| Napheesa Collier * | 32 | 5-13 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Kayla McBride * | 32 | 5-12 | 3-7 | 6-8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 12 | - |
| Courtney Williams * | 27 | 8-16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Alanna Smith * | 19 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Myisha Hines-Allen | 20 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Diamond Miller | 13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Natisha Hiedeman | 12 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Dorka Juhász | 6 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Cecilia Zandalasini | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Alissa Pili | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Cloud * | 36 | 5-16 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Kahleah Copper * | 32 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 6-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 2 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 31 | 7-13 | 2-6 | 0-4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 28 | 3-13 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Monique Billings * | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Sophie Cunningham | 25 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 7-7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Natasha Mack | 13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Celeste Taylor | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Mikiah Herbert Harrigan | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
* = starter