Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Atlanta Dream | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.8% | 73.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.4% | 62.6% | +5.7 | ✓ (3.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.4% | 66.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Dream +9 (72-63). Ratings: 2025 season-end ratings.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Cloud * | 37 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 33 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Kahleah Copper * | 33 | 8-17 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 11 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 30 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Sophie Cunningham * | 24 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Monique Billings | 17 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Natasha Mack | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Mikiah Herbert Harrigan | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhyne Howard * | 34 | 6-19 | 4-13 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 5 | - |
| Naz Hillmon * | 33 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Tina Charles * | 33 | 4-12 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 20 | - |
| Allisha Gray * | 33 | 6-14 | 3-8 | 6-6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 11 | - |
| Jordin Canada * | 28 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Maya Caldwell | 12 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Haley Jones | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Lorela Cubaj | 8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Nia Coffey | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter