Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Indiana Fever | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.9% | 67.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 36.1% | 63.9% | +3.1 | ✓ (5.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Indiana Fever +9 (98-89). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper * | 38 | 6-17 | 2-7 | 18-19 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 27 | - |
| Natasha Cloud * | 37 | 7-13 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 11 | - |
| Sophie Cunningham * | 34 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 32 | 5-13 | 3-10 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 7 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 24 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Natasha Mack | 16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - |
| Mikiah Herbert Harrigan | 10 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Sug Sutton | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Indiana Fever
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell * | 36 | 11-22 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 14 | - |
| Caitlin Clark * | 35 | 8-16 | 4-11 | 9-10 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 23 | - |
| Aliyah Boston * | 32 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 16 | - |
| NaLyssa Smith * | 28 | 5-12 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Katie Lou Samuelson * | 22 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Lexie Hull | 18 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Erica Wheeler | 14 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - |
| Damiris Dantas | 10 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
* = starter