Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Dream | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.0% | 48.0% | -0.4 | ✗ (3.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.5% | 38.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.6% | 38.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +3 (88-85). Ratings: 2025 season-end ratings.
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhyne Howard * | 39 | 7-15 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 16 | - |
| Allisha Gray * | 33 | 8-12 | 3-4 | 3-6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 21 | - |
| Tina Charles * | 26 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Cheyenne Parker-Tyus * | 23 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 7-8 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Haley Jones * | 20 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Crystal Dangerfield | 19 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 5-5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Naz Hillmon | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Nia Coffey | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Aerial Powers | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Laeticia Amihere | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper * | 32 | 11-20 | 3-5 | 13-16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 23 | - |
| Natasha Cloud * | 31 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 29 | 4-15 | 1-8 | 6-6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Rebecca Allen * | 21 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Natasha Mack * | 21 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 | - |
| Sophie Cunningham | 25 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 16 | - |
| Sug Sutton | 15 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Liz Dixon | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Mikiah Herbert Harrigan | 7 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Morgan Bertsch | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter