Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.9% | 66.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 19.1% | 80.9% | +7.9 | ✗ (12.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 39.1% | 60.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils -5 (79-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Davis * | 37 | 4-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -1 | +1.7 |
| Harrison Ingram * | 35 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 16 | -0.5 |
| Cormac Ryan * | 34 | 8-12 | 6-8 | 9-10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 21 | +5.3 |
| Armando Bacot * | 34 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | +11.2 |
| Elliot Cadeau * | 21 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | +10.7 |
| Seth Trimble | 20 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -4.0 |
| Jae'Lyn Withers | 11 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | +4.1 |
| Jalen Washington | 6 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Paxson Wojcik | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Proctor * | 40 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 9 | -1.7 |
| Jeremy Roach * | 39 | 3-12 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 2 | -1.2 |
| Jared McCain * | 38 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 5-5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 14 | +2.8 |
| Kyle Filipowski * | 34 | 8-18 | 2-6 | 5-8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 19 | -1.3 |
| Mark Mitchell * | 19 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Ryan Young | 19 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1.7 |
| Sean Stewart | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1.7 |
| TJ Power | 4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | -0.4 |
* = starter