Model Predictions
| Model | NC State Wolfpack | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.9% | 71.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 21.9% | 78.1% | +7.0 | ✓ (2.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 15.9% | 84.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 14.1% | 85.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 14.0% | 86.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +9 (79-70). Predictions use season-end ratings.
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Horne * | 39 | 8-19 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 6 | -4.2 |
| Mohamed Diarra * | 33 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Casey Morsell * | 26 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | -2.7 |
| Michael O'Connell * | 26 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -2.4 |
| DJ Burns Jr. * | 17 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -1 | -6.4 |
| Jayden Taylor | 28 | 6-10 | 5-7 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 12 | -6.9 |
| Ben Middlebrooks | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | +3.1 |
| Dennis Parker Jr. | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -7.8 |
| Breon Pass | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.1 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Davis * | 36 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 15 | +2.2 |
| Harrison Ingram * | 36 | 8-14 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 16 | -5.7 |
| Armando Bacot * | 34 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +13.7 |
| Elliot Cadeau * | 31 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 18 | +13.7 |
| Cormac Ryan * | 30 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +14.8 |
| Seth Trimble | 15 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -3.4 |
| Jae'Lyn Withers | 10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +8.7 |
| Jalen Washington | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Paxson Wojcik | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -5.1 |
* = starter