Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 31.6% | 68.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 24.0% | 76.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 5.9% | 94.1% | +15.2 | ✓ (9.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 9.6% | 90.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 6.9% | 93.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 6.7% | 93.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +25 (73-48). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reece Beekman * | 35 | 7-15 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | -16.9 |
| Isaac McKneely * | 34 | 3-11 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | -16.3 |
| Ryan Dunn * | 31 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 9 | -19.4 |
| Jacob Groves * | 23 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -18.5 |
| Jordan Minor * | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -11.9 |
| Andrew Rohde | 23 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -7.9 |
| Blake Buchanan | 17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5.9 |
| Dante Harris | 11 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3.2 |
| Taine Murray | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3.5 |
| Elijah Gertrude | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +0.3 |
| Leon Bond III | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Roach * | 35 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +18.5 |
| Jared McCain * | 31 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +14.9 |
| Kyle Filipowski * | 29 | 9-14 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 18 | +20.7 |
| Tyrese Proctor * | 29 | 6-8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 14 | +19.3 |
| Mark Mitchell * | 25 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Sean Stewart | 15 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | +2.5 |
| TJ Power | 13 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +8.2 |
| Ryan Young | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +2.2 |
| Jaylen Blakes | 8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Spencer Hubbard | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -0.3 |
| Neal Begovich | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2.0 |
* = starter