Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.3% | 84.7% | +9.4 | ✓ (1.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.1% | 87.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 11.8% | 88.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +8 (68-60). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexi Donarski | 45 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Reniya Kelly | 42 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Deja Kelly | 37 | 6-19 | 1-5 | 7-7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 5 | - |
| Alyssa Ustby | 35 | 2-14 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Maria Gakdeng | 26 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Anya Poole | 17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Indya Nivar | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Teonni Key | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Alexandra Zelaya | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Sydney Barker | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| RyLee Grays | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashlon Jackson | 42 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | - |
| K. Brown | 34 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Reigan Richardson | 32 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Delaney Thomas | 31 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 16 | - |
| Taina Mair | 30 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Oluchi Okananwa | 23 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Emma Koabel | 12 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | - |
| C. Emsbo | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Jadyn Donovan | 10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | - |
* = starter