Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Cal State Northridge Matadors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.4% | 71.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 35.0% | 65.0% | +3.4 | ✗ (28.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 3.5% | 96.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 17.3% | 82.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.0% | 82.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal State Northridge Matadors -25 (43-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. McNicholas | 35 | 3-11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | - |
| A. Shah | 32 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | - |
| S. Bourland | 30 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 13 | - |
| S. Lichtie | 27 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 16 | - |
| M. Carter | 20 | 4-9 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| N. Ackerman | 20 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 19 | - |
| A. Olinger | 18 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -5 | - |
| D. Richardson | 16 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| J. Hoffman | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Billing | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Adams | 31 | 2-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | - |
| L. Amundsen | 28 | 0-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| T. Li-Uperesa | 26 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - |
| A. Ferguson | 25 | 5-15 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 1 | - |
| R. Harvey | 24 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| K. Spriggs | 22 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | - |
| A. De Jesus | 19 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | - |
| O. Smith | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| A. Lizama | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter