Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.5% | 74.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 60.9% | 39.1% | -2.4 | ✗ (11.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +9 (68-59). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Love * | 38 | 3-15 | 2-10 | 3-4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | - |
| RJ Davis * | 38 | 8-14 | 4-8 | 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 13 | - |
| P. Nance * | 36 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | - |
| L. Black * | 36 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| A. Bacot * | 21 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | - |
| P. Johnson | 20 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| D. Dunn | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| S. Trimble | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Beekman * | 39 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 17 | - |
| K. Clark * | 37 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | - |
| J. Gardner * | 33 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 19 | - |
| A. Franklin * | 29 | 6-13 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 4 | - |
| F. Caffaro * | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| I. McKneely | 20 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| K. Shedrick | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| R. Dunn | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter