Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.4% | 63.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 83.2% | 16.8% | -8.8 | ✓ (2.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -11 (59-70). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kelly | 37 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 9-11 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 20 | - |
| A. Ustby | 31 | 7-12 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 15 | - |
| K. Todd-Williams | 29 | 6-13 | 3-7 | 6-8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | - |
| P. Paris | 26 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| E. Hodgson | 26 | 0-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| A. Poole | 23 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | - |
| D. Adams | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - |
| T. Key | 8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| A. Zelaya | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Smith | 32 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | - |
| S. Brunelle | 26 | 5-9 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 15 | - |
| K. Lawson | 26 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | - |
| T. Valladay | 25 | 6-12 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 8 | - |
| L. Clarkson | 23 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | - |
| M. Dale | 22 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| C. Miller | 18 | 3-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | - |
| C. Taylor | 17 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| C. Pauley | 6 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Y. Vaughn | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter