Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.9% | 28.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.3% | 45.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.8% | 47.2% | -0.6 | ✓ (4.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 70.9% | 29.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -5 (57-62). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Mitchell * | 38 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Jeremy Roach * | 37 | 4-16 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -3 | - |
| Kyle Filipowski * | 35 | 7-17 | 1-4 | 7-8 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | - |
| Tyrese Proctor * | 32 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Dereck Lively II * | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | - |
| Ryan Young | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Dariq Whitehead | 15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Jacob Grandison | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leaky Black * | 40 | 3-16 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | - |
| Armando Bacot * | 31 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 9-10 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 22 | - |
| Pete Nance * | 24 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Justin McKoy * | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jackson Watkins * | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| RJ Davis | 38 | 6-13 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 14 | - |
| Caleb Love | 34 | 3-12 | 0-6 | 5-7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Puff Johnson | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Dontrez Styles | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D'Marco Dunn | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Tyler Nickel | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jalen Washington | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Seth Trimble | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter