Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.9% | 28.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.3% | 45.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.8% | 47.2% | -0.6 | ✓ (4.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 70.9% | 29.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -5 (57-62). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Mitchell * | 38 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - |
| J. Roach * | 37 | 4-16 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -3 | - |
| Player #4684793 * | 35 | 7-17 | 1-4 | 7-8 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | - |
| Player #5023693 * | 32 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Player #4683688 * | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | - |
| R. Young | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Player #4432735 | 15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| J. Grandison | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player #4395650 * | 40 | 3-16 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | - |
| Player #4431674 * | 31 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 9-10 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 22 | - |
| Player #4397233 * | 24 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| J. McKoy * | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Watkins * | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| RJ Davis | 38 | 6-13 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 14 | - |
| Player #4433144 | 34 | 3-12 | 0-6 | 5-7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| P. Johnson | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Styles | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Dunn | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| T. Nickel | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Washington | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| S. Trimble | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter