Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 18.6% | 81.4% | +8.1 | ✓ (0.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 70.1% | 29.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +8 (71-63). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Gardner * | 37 | 9-17 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 16 | - |
| R. Beekman * | 36 | 4-11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| K. Clark * | 33 | 3-9 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | - |
| A. Franklin * | 30 | 6-14 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 6 | - |
| B. Vander Plas * | 21 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| I. McKneely | 26 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| R. Dunn | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| K. Shedrick | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Love * | 37 | 2-12 | 1-8 | 5-6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| RJ Davis * | 37 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 18 | - |
| L. Black * | 34 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - |
| P. Nance * | 33 | 7-10 | 4-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 19 | - |
| A. Bacot * | 25 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | - |
| P. Johnson | 24 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - |
| J. Washington | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| S. Trimble | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Dunn | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter