Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.3% | 49.7% | -0.1 | ✗ (8.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack +8 (77-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Davis * | 40 | 2-13 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | - |
| Leaky Black * | 37 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Armando Bacot * | 34 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Caleb Love * | 34 | 7-17 | 4-8 | 5-7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 10 | - |
| Pete Nance * | 22 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Puff Johnson | 22 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Seth Trimble | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Tyler Nickel | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D'Marco Dunn | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Joiner * | 39 | 11-21 | 1-4 | 6-6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 10 | - |
| T. Smith * | 37 | 5-16 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | - |
| C. Morsell * | 35 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - |
| DJ Burns Jr. * | 25 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 9 | - |
| Greg Gantt Jr. * | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Jack Clark | 25 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Ebenezer Dowuona | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Ernest Ross | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - |
| LJ Thomas | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter