Model Predictions
| Model | NC State Wolfpack | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 31.5% | 68.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.1% | 73.9% | +5.7 | ✓ (5.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +11 (80-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Joiner * | 38 | 6-18 | 0-6 | 6-6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | - |
| C. Morsell * | 38 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | - |
| DJ Burns Jr. * | 25 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 9 | - |
| T. Smith * | 23 | 5-15 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -2 | - |
| Greg Gantt Jr. * | 21 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Ernest Ross | 19 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Ebenezer Dowuona | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| LJ Thomas | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Breon Pass | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Love * | 38 | 3-14 | 1-5 | 9-10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 8 | - |
| RJ Davis * | 37 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 14-14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 19 | - |
| Pete Nance * | 37 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Armando Bacot * | 33 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 30 | - |
| Leaky Black * | 26 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| D'Marco Dunn | 17 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5 | - |
| Jalen Washington | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Seth Trimble | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Dontrez Styles | 3 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
* = starter