Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Louisville Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 79.6% | 20.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 80.6% | 19.4% | -7.8 | ✓ (13.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 81.4% | 18.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 94.5% | 5.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.3% | 5.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.4% | 5.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Louisville Cardinals -21 (59-80). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Love * | 33 | 3-14 | 0-7 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | -2 | - |
| RJ Davis * | 27 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Armando Bacot * | 25 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 | - |
| Puff Johnson * | 25 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Leaky Black * | 23 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| D'Marco Dunn | 25 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Jalen Washington | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Seth Trimble | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Dontrez Styles | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Tyler Nickel | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
Louisville Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Ellis * | 34 | 6-16 | 1-5 | 9-9 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 8 | - |
| JJ Traynor * | 32 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Jae'lyn Withers * | 31 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Mike James * | 26 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | - |
| S. Curry * | 21 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | - |
| R. Wheeler | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Kamari Lands | 14 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Hercy Miller | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Z. Payne | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| F. Basili | 5 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Devin Ree | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter