Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.5% | 74.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 60.9% | 39.1% | -2.4 | ✗ (9.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +7 (65-58). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Love * | 36 | 4-13 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 4 | - |
| RJ Davis * | 35 | 6-12 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 5 | - |
| Leaky Black * | 30 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Seth Trimble * | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Armando Bacot * | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Jalen Washington | 27 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 3-6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 8 | - |
| D'Marco Dunn | 22 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Justin McKoy | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Puff Johnson | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Tyler Nickel | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Beekman * | 39 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 12 | - |
| K. Clark * | 38 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | - |
| A. Franklin * | 36 | 4-13 | 0-5 | 4-7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Kadin Shedrick * | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| J. Gardner * | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| B. Vander Plas | 27 | 6-10 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 21 | - |
| Isaac Mckneely | 21 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| F. Caffaro | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| R. Dunn | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter