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2023-01-10

Model Predictions

Model North Carolina Tar Heels Virginia Cavaliers Spread Result
Elo 25.5% 74.5% -
Bradley-Terry 44.9% 55.1% -
Margin 60.9% 39.1% -2.4 (9.4 off)
Pythagorean 41.2% 58.8% -
Efficiency 23.9% 76.1% -
Adjusted Efficiency 45.7% 54.3% -
Log Adjusted 45.9% 54.1% -

Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +7 (65-58). Predictions use season-end ratings.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
C. Love * 36 4-13 3-9 2-2 3 5 0 0 4 13 4 -
RJ Davis * 35 6-12 3-5 1-2 3 1 1 0 4 16 5 -
L. Black * 30 3-8 1-5 0-0 6 0 3 1 1 7 8 -
S. Trimble * 16 0-2 0-0 2-2 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 -
A. Bacot * 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 -
J. Washington 27 5-11 0-2 3-6 6 0 0 1 1 13 8 -
D. Dunn 22 2-4 1-3 0-0 0 0 1 0 1 5 1 -
J. McKoy 15 1-3 0-0 0-0 6 1 0 0 1 2 5 -
P. Johnson 14 0-0 0-0 0-0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 -
T. Nickel 4 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -

Virginia Cavaliers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
R. Beekman * 39 5-12 0-2 3-4 2 5 5 1 2 13 12 -
K. Clark * 38 3-8 0-1 1-3 2 2 2 0 2 7 3 -
A. Franklin * 36 4-13 0-5 4-7 9 2 0 3 1 12 12 -
K. Shedrick * 18 1-2 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 1 1 2 2 -
J. Gardner * 15 1-2 0-0 1-2 1 0 0 0 1 3 1 -
B. Vander Plas 27 6-10 3-7 2-3 8 1 2 3 0 17 21 -
I. McKneely 21 4-5 3-4 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 11 8 -
F. Caffaro 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 -
R. Dunn 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 -

* = starter