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2023-01-04

Model Predictions

Model Duke Blue Devils NC State Wolfpack Spread Result
Elo 79.7% 20.3% -
Bradley-Terry 61.4% 38.6% -
Margin 65.5% 34.5% -3.5 (27.5 off)
Pythagorean 50.2% 49.8% -
Efficiency 73.7% 26.3% -
Adjusted Efficiency 64.6% 35.4% -
Log Adjusted 64.8% 35.2% -

Actual: NC State Wolfpack +24 (84-60). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Duke Blue Devils

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
K. Filipowski * 28 4-10 0-2 6-9 8 0 0 0 3 14 9 -
M. Mitchell * 25 3-6 0-0 0-2 6 3 1 1 2 6 9 -
J. Roach * 23 0-8 0-2 4-4 3 1 1 0 1 4 0 -
J. Blakes * 18 1-3 0-1 0-0 2 0 1 0 3 2 -1 -
D. Lively II * 12 0-1 0-0 1-2 3 0 1 1 2 1 3 -
D. Whitehead 23 4-8 4-7 0-0 3 1 1 0 4 12 5 -
T. Proctor 21 2-5 0-1 1-2 3 1 0 0 4 5 0 -
R. Young 20 4-4 0-0 3-5 3 2 0 0 2 11 10 -
J. Grandison 14 0-1 0-1 2-2 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 -
J. Schutt 8 1-1 1-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 -
K. Catchings 4 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 -
C. Reeves 4 0-1 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

NC State Wolfpack

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
C. Morsell * 35 4-10 0-4 0-0 10 0 1 1 0 8 10 -
J. Joiner * 35 8-18 5-10 0-0 6 9 2 0 0 21 20 -
T. Smith * 34 8-19 4-8 4-5 2 0 3 1 3 24 8 -
G. Gantt Jr. * 30 2-4 0-2 0-0 5 1 3 2 0 4 11 -
E. Dowuona * 24 2-5 0-0 0-2 4 0 0 1 0 4 4 -
DJ Burns Jr. 16 7-10 0-0 4-8 1 1 0 4 2 18 12 -
LJ Thomas 13 1-2 1-2 0-0 4 3 1 0 1 3 8 -
E. Ross 6 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 -
B. Pass 3 1-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 -
KJ Keatts 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
C. Graham 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
J. Snell 1 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -

* = starter