Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | LSU Tigers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.3% | 75.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 7.9% | 92.1% | +13.5 | ✓ (2.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 67.0% | 33.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 73.3% | 26.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.5% | 95.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.4% | 95.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: LSU Tigers +16 (77-61). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Burford * | 34 | 7-12 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Kendall Lewis * | 31 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Malachi Poindexter * | 31 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Colton Sandage * | 29 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Liam McChesney * | 20 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Seneca Knight | 28 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 | - |
| Joe Petrakis | 13 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Jayden Johnson | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Harouna Sissoko | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Alston Andrews | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ryan Schmitt | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
LSU Tigers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Miller * | 32 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 8-8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | - |
| KJ Williams * | 30 | 13-19 | 1-4 | 6-6 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 27 | - |
| Justice Hill * | 29 | 1-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Mwani Wilkinson * | 20 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | - |
| Jalen Reed * | 19 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Cam Hayes | 21 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Derek Fountain | 20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Trae Hannibal | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Kendal Coleman | 10 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Tyrell Ward | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Shawn Phillips Jr. | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter