Model Predictions
| Model | Xavier Musketeers | Villanova Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.8% | 94.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.3% | 81.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.9% | 80.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.6% | 95.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 5.8% | 94.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.7% | 78.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Villanova Wildcats +25 (82-57). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Xavier Musketeers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nia Clark * | 35 | 4-13 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | -18.4 |
| Shaila Beeler * | 26 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -8.4 |
| Ayanna Townsend * | 25 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -2 | -8.3 |
| Kae Satterfield * | 22 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | -5.5 |
| Aanaya Harris * | 20 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | -10.7 |
| Shelby Calhoun | 20 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -3.3 |
| MacKayla Scarlett | 18 | 1-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | -12.6 |
| Courtney Prenger | 17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -12.2 |
| Kaysia Woods | 17 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -1.5 |
Villanova Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Siegrist * | 30 | 11-18 | 4-8 | 4-6 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 30 | +21.0 |
| Lior Garzon * | 27 | 8-15 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 16 | +13.2 |
| Brooke Mullin * | 24 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | +12.9 |
| Bria. Herlihy * | 22 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | +17.1 |
| Lucy Olsen * | 14 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +6.3 |
| Bella Runyan | 30 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | +9.2 |
| Kaitlyn Orihel | 13 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +1.4 |
| Anahi-Lee Cauley | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Zanai Jones | 11 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Kenzie Gardler | 8 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2.3 |
| Christina Dalce | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3.0 |
| Kylie Swider | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter