Model Predictions
| Model | Morehead State Eagles | Murray State Racers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.5% | 96.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 10.7% | 89.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 4.4% | 95.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 1.6% | 98.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 0.1% | 99.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 0.1% | 99.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 4.2% | 95.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State Racers +35 (79-44). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Morehead State Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terri Smith * | 34 | 4-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | -15.0 |
| Morgan Browning * | 30 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | -6.5 |
| Jada Claude * | 29 | 6-22 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | -11.9 |
| Jazmyn Gaines-Burns * | 26 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10.4 |
| Alana Denson * | 25 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -14.7 |
| Tyler Moore | 22 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -3.3 |
| Janay Rose | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -12.3 |
| Julan McDonald | 10 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6.9 |
| Kaitlyn Keathley | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -4.3 |
Murray State Racers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Burpo * | 25 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 7 | +10.0 |
| Hannah McKay * | 24 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | +14.5 |
| Katelyn Young * | 23 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 13 | +4.4 |
| Macey Turley * | 23 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +15.1 |
| Lex Mayes * | 21 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +9.1 |
| Jaidah Black | 19 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | +8.2 |
| Cayson Conner | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | -3.3 |
| Bria Sanders-Woods | 12 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 5-7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 | +11.3 |
| Isabell West | 9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -2.1 |
| Charlee Settle | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5.2 |
| Raegan Blackburn | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Claira McGowan | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -2.9 |
| Lucia Operto | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +0.6 |
| Takiya Howard | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2.3 |
| Demia Bess | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2.3 |
* = starter