Model Predictions
| Model | Belmont Bruins | Austin Peay Governors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 70.3% | 29.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 78.9% | 21.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 96.9% | 3.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 97.2% | 2.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Austin Peay Governors +2 (70-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Belmont Bruins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuti Jones * | 36 | 4-10 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | -8.1 |
| Destinee Wells * | 36 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 9 | -7.6 |
| Conley Chinn * | 34 | 4-11 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | -14.3 |
| Jamilyn Kinney * | 34 | 4-8 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | -7.2 |
| Madison Bartley * | 12 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | +0.0 |
| Tessa Miller | 22 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 18 | +2.3 |
| Kiki Britzmann | 9 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -2.9 |
| Kilyn McGuff | 7 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Blair Schoenwald | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.9 |
| Nikki Baird | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3.3 |
Austin Peay Governors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shay-Lee Kirby * | 37 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +14.7 |
| Karle Pace * | 35 | 9-16 | 4-6 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 11 | +5.3 |
| Nina De leon negron * | 35 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | +18.4 |
| Ella Sawyer * | 35 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +4.7 |
| Lyric Cole * | 10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -1 | +10.9 |
| Yamia Johnson | 24 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 9-10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 18 | -2.7 |
| D'Shara Booker | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1.3 |
| Kasey Kidwell | 11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -4.5 |
* = starter